Rep. Mike Lawler Eyes 2026 New York Gubernatorial Run

Table of Contents

The Brief

• Rep. Mike Lawler states that he will make his decision by June regarding whether to campaign for the position of New York governor in 2026.
• Lawler adds his name to an increasing roster of possible Republican contenders, which includes Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and Representative Elise Stefanik.
• GOP leadership intends to bypass a primary election with the aim of choosing their gubernatorial candidate at the upcoming state convention next year.

NEW YORK - Representative Mike Lawler, who has just been re-elected to represent the Lower Hudson Valley, is considering a potential bid for New York governor in 2026. He would be entering the race as part of an increasing number of Republicans exploring this opportunity.

What we know

Speaking with FOX 5 NY's Morgan McKay, Lawler says that he plans to make a decision by June on whether he will launch a campaign for governor. While the race may seem far off, Republican candidates are already positioning themselves to challenge Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul.

Despite winning his re-election bid, Lawler secured victory in a district that has increasingly leaned towards Democrats recently. He remains optimistic about a GOP resurgence, pointing to former Congressman Lee Zeldin’s surprisingly robust showing during the 2022 governor’s race as evidence of this possibility.

We are currently assessing the situation and analyzing the data to determine if there’s actually a viable path forward," Lawler stated. "Zeldin performed well, yet he was defeated by approximately 350,000 votes. Similarly, President Trump had an improved performance but ended up losing by about one million votes. Therefore, the key issue is whether there truly exists a route to victory. Personally, I’m not keen on embarking on a suicide mission. If I decide to proceed, it will only be because I am convinced that there is indeed a way to triumph.

Other Republican Candidates

Lawler isn’t the sole Republican mulling a gubernatorial campaign. Bruce Blakeman, who serves as the Nassau County Executive, is likewise contemplating entering the race. Additionally, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik has lately hinted at her potential involvement.

Stefanik was chosen by ex-President Trump to be the U.S. representative at the United Nations, yet she went back to her position in the House following worries that leaving might put the Republicans’ narrow control of Congress at risk.

By the numbers

According to a recent survey conducted by Republican pollster Landon Wall of GrayHouse, Elise Stefanik leads in an imagined GOP primary race for governor. The findings indicate that Stefanik has earned the backing of 44% of Republicans surveyed, whereas Lawler secured only 7%, and Blakeman received just 5%.

What's next

Leaders of the Republican Party, such as Ed Cox who heads the New York State GOP, remain hopeful for 2026 and are aiming to prevent a contentious primary battle.

President Trump gained 10 percentage points compared to four years earlier. We've got some momentum now," Cox stated. "While it will be somewhat tougher in several areas of the state than it was for Lee Zeldin in 2022, he faced a challenging primary which hindered him. This time around, however, we won’t have such a primary contest.

Rather, Republicans intend to choose their nominee at the state convention in the upcoming year.