Human-caused emissions have delayed Earth’s next ice age, study says. But by how long?
A new study indicates that Earth is likely to enter its next ice age in about 11,000 years from now - however, our influence on the planet might push back its start, by thousands of years.
Scientists have long recognised that shifts in Earth's orbit impact changes between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods. However, until now, they were unable to pinpoint which orbital factors influenced the timing of these glacial cycles the most.
A research team led by the University of Cardiff looked at the Earth's natural climate cycles over the past million years and matched this data to changes in the tilt, wobble and shape of Earth's orbit around the Sun.
Emissions might've interfered with them.
"The pattern we found is so reliable that we were able to accurately predict when each interglacial period in the past million years or so would occur and how long each would last," lead author Stephen Barker, a professor at the University of Cardiff told AFP.
What methods do you use to forecast the onset of the next ice age?
The last ice age finished around 11,700 years ago. This marked the beginning of the Holocene, a time with relatively stable weather which allowed human societies to prosper.
However, figuring out a precise time frame has been quite tricky.
Rose and fell over time rather than examining the start of ice age periods.
They found that every ice age over the past 900,000 years has happened at a specific point where the tilt, wobble and shape of the Earth's orbit all intersect.
“It confirms the natural climate change patterns we see on Earth over tens of thousands of years are mainly predictable and not just a mix of random or chaotic events,” said Professor Lorraine Lisiecki from the University of California, Santa Barbara.
, Earth's next glaciation would "occur within the next 11,000 years, and it would end in 66,000 years' time", says Barker. But with carbon dioxide levels now at their highest in at least 800,000 years, that timeline has shifted significantly.
A long-term climate shift
This research spans many decades, highlighting outcomes that will unfold over geological time scales.
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It's likely to have a substantial impact on the Earth's natural climate patterns.
They reckon we could be ice-free in 8,000 years, which would cause a global sea-level rise of about 70 metres.
“Instead of having glaciers, you'll be underwater,” Barker warned.
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