Sutherland will need full tank for Scotland to end losing run against Ireland

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This week. Our rough grasp of it is that you'll be parted from your cash quickly if you get the idea the outcome of the next event will be different to the ones that have happened before just because you reckon it's time for a change.

So a losing streak can be a series of 50-50 calls – teams matched up evenly to start off from the same point at the same time in the same conditions, yet the longer it goes on the closer we get to a turnaround because, well, it's due for a change.

Fair enough, but once you get beyond the basic details of the setting itself, international rugby games don't usually sit well before they start. That's when the bookies do their thing. So is it reasonable to conclude that Scotland will give Ireland a win in the championships because the Irish players are so sick of the colour green it's going to go the way of the home team?

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We used to think this way about navy blue. After 12 Tests in a row, from 1989 to 1999, where Scotland hadn't lost to us, the new millennium arrived and some hope for change came along. But not much changed. In our first Six Nations match against the Scots after the turn of the millennium, they looked like they were off to a great start until some chaos ruined their chances and saved Warren Gatland his job as Ireland coach. It's tricky to predict the unpredictable.

Except neither of those unfolded.

The silver lining for Gregor Townsend, Scotland's coach, is the final quarter at Murrayfield last weekend, when his team showed the patience and stamina to ride out the game, partly thanks to Italy's high tackling numbers in the first half. If you look at Glasgow's strong overall condition, a crucial factor is their fitness over the full 80 minutes and their improved understanding of how to win during these periods. Having pinpointed final quarters as their weakness, they've taken steps to address it. This works in Scotland's favour too.

Rory Sutherland seems to be a winner, but he did bring a full head of steam to the final half-hour when they got rid of Italy. When asked this week why Scotland's record in this game is so ordinary, Sutherland took a circuitous route instead of giving a straight answer, possibly because the real reason wasn't something he wanted to share – but he settled for something useable: “I think there's a bit of added spice there because it's them,” before adding, with a bit of understatement: “We've fallen short a few times …”

No one was going to have a fair dinkum crack at nailin' a circa 120kg prop through the chapter and verse of the sorrowful mysteries because it's not that hard to grasp: Ireland and Scotland kicked off in different directions in the opposite way in the 21st century and it's reflected in 26 wins to six in Ireland's favour since then.

For the past decade, David Nucifora has made a contribution to Ireland through his role as High Performance director. On Sunday, The Australian is doing the same job for Scotland. However, it's unlikely he'll achieve the same level of success. We're unsure what key performance indicators the Scottish Rugby Union has in place, but with only two professional teams to work with below the national level, and nothing akin to a talent factory like the one that churns out players from Leinster's schools setup, their expectations should be tempered.

So, if Ireland really push their boundaries in this Test, you'll understand why Andrew Nucifora is entitled to take some pride. His role in handing out national contracts in Ireland was sometimes among the most debated of his tasks, but despite degrading Peter O’Mahony, the Munster back-rower is still giving it a fair go, nearly 18 months after reeling in the milestone 100 Test caps – also coincidentally coming against Scotland, at the last World Cup. After coming on as a sub four times in November, O’Mahony’s in the starting side on Sunday. It’s a call-up that looks back rather than forwards.

The Irish assistant coach, Simon Easterby, said O'Mahony got a start because of his experience, despite not being fully fit. "With Pete, we spoke before the England Test and having come into camp with a bit less footy under his belt, we felt he needed an extra week to work on his fitness," he said. "He brings experience which some other players don't have at the moment."

Fair dinkum, it's tough to get ahead in the game if you're not having a crack, isn't it? Like losing runs of luck, you need a real swing in things to turn the tables.