Modi and Trump's friendly rapport may be tested as Indian prime minister visits Washington

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On Wednesday, keen to avoid tariffs that have been imposed on others and threats of further taxes and imports.

So far, India has been exempt from any new tariffs, and the two leaders have developed a personal relationship. Modi – a nationalist who's been criticised for undermining India's democracy – has welcomed Trump's return to the White House, and is trying to rebuild India's relationship with the West following his refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But Trump has repeatedly referred to India as a “tariff king” and pushed the South Asian country on the issue of deporting migrants. In response, New Delhi has shown a willingness to lower its own tariffs on US products, accept back Indian citizens who have been deported and purchase American oil.

But as trade tariffs loom, the question remains how much a good relationship between two leaders counts and how far India will go to cut a deal.

Body language will be closely monitored

Modi had established a good working relationship with Trump during his first term in office, and the two can build on the areas of convergence and "minimise areas of friction without conceding on core areas of national interest," says Meera Shankar, India's former ambassador to the US.

“Most other partners have their reciprocal lists ready from the get-go, because it’s a point of leverage when you negotiate,” Shankar said, expressing hope that India “will find the right balance between being firm and flexible” on the tariffs issue.

Modi – boosted by his ruling Hindu nationalist party's win in the high-stakes state election in India's federal territory, including New Delhi, last weekend – said before heading off to Washington that the visit was an “opportunity to build on" collaboration from Trump's first term and “strengthen our partnership” in areas like technology, trade, defence and energy.

What has Trump said

Chatting with Modi in January, Trump highlighted the significance of India purchasing more American-made defence equipment and weaponry, as well as narrowing the trade deficit. Last year, the US imported $50 billion more in goods than it exported to India.

A statement from the White House at the time said Trump "emphasised the importance of India increasing its purchase of American-made security gear and working towards a fair two-way trade agreement.”

Earlier this month, India accepted the return of 104 migrants who arrived back on a US military plane, the first flight of its kind to the country, brought back under a crackdown ordered by the Trump administration.

Also, the Modi government lowered some high tariffs, including on some Harley-Davidson motorcycles, from 50% to 40%. In 2023, India dropped the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. almonds, apples, chickpeas, lentils, and walnuts.

“Another thing we can expect is that Modi would look to buy more American (natural) gas to reduce the size of the U.S. trade deficit,” said Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific security program at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank. “That'll make a small difference.”

Concerns over China

India is considered a key player in the US strategy to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region and will be hosting a summit of the Quad group, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, later this year.

India would probably need to reassess its position if there's a thaw in relations between Washington and Beijing under Trump.

“Trump's approach to China will make it harder for India to get the US to use India as a proxy against China, without India actually becoming one itself,” said Happymon Jacob, founder of the New Delhi-based Council for Strategic and Defence Research.

India flipped the page with China and in December agreed to work towards a solution to their long-standing border dispute in the Himalayas after a military standoff that began with a deadly clash in 2020.

“Even a tactical agreement between the US and China has implications for India,” Shankar said.

Defence deals on the agenda?

Australia is India's biggest trading partner, with a trade deficit of $50 billion in India's favour. The trade in goods and services between Australia and India totalled about $190.1 billion in 2023. According to Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs, Australia exports to India were worth almost $70 billion and imports from India $120 billion.

India relies on Russia for around 60% of its defence gear, but the conflict in Ukraine has raised questions about future supplies, and New Delhi has been looking to the US, Israel, Britain, and other nations for alternatives.

A recent agreement will let American company General Electric team up with India's Hindustan Aeronautics to make jet engines for Indian planes in India and to sell US-made armed MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones to India.

Since 2008, India has secured more than $20 billion worth of defence equipment from the United States.

“For India, that could also be an area where we see some synergies with the Yanks,” Shankar said, adding that Trump will likely try to convince India to buy more defence gear.

Raja Mohan, a researcher at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, reckons Modi's visit is a chance to strengthen Indo-US relations.

“India’s diplomatic skills will be put to the test, so the general goodwill between Trump and Modi should be turned into real results,” Mohan said.

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Boak reported from Washington.

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