How Pope Francis loaded the dice to ensure a progressive successor

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When Mykola Bychok participated in the Walk for Justice for Refugees in his adopted home country of Australia, he carried a straightforward message.

He reminded the crowd in the bright Melbourne sunlight that Jesus Christ was the first refugee.

About a year later, the 44-year-old was appointed the world's youngest cardinal in a grand ceremony at St. Peter's Basilica, bypassing more prominent Catholic leaders - and sparking surprise among Vatican specialists.

The body responsible for electing a new pope after Pope Francis passes away.

– described by some as the "woke Pope" for his progressive views on immigration, the environment, and same-sex relationships – is widely perceived to have appointed a large number of men to the College of Cardinals who share his views.

With the 88-year-old Pope from Argentina hospitalized in Rome due to double pneumonia, severe breathing problems, and partial kidney failure, it's a situation the College may have to deal with sooner rather than later.

The timing of electing a new Pope couldn't be more sensitive considering the current global situation, with the return of Donald Trump, the resurgence of far-Right movements in Europe, and growing opposition to immigration.

The cardinals are once again entrusted with determining the future course of the Catholic Church, which affects the lives of 1.4 billion people who consider themselves Catholics.

There are a total of 252 cardinals, but only 138 of them are eligible to vote for the next Pope since the others are disqualified due to being over the age of 80.

Out of the 138, 110 were appointed by Pope Francis, which is roughly 80 percent.

The author, who is close to Pope Francis, wrote a biography about him, titled "The Great Reformer: Francis and the Making of a Radical Pope".

He wants the College of Cardinals to face the harsh realities of the world. He has chosen individuals who will bring a voice to the discussion about the future Pope on behalf of migrants, the poor, and the victims of war.

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Indeed, "certainty is the great enemy of unity" as Ralph Fiennes says in the role of Thomas Langton, the liberal British cardinal he portrays in the award-winning film Conclave.

A hesitant organizer of the conclave in his role as the Dean of the College of Cardinals, he says to a colleague, "Hell arrives tomorrow when we bring in the cardinals."

The word "conclave" originates from the Latin words "cum" and "clavis", literally translating to "with key", referring to a room that can be securely locked.

The secretive election will take place approximately two weeks after the Pope's passing, allowing time for cardinals from around the world to travel to Rome.

"It's an event shrouded in legend, one that uniquely combines theater with intrigue, politics with prayer," said John Allen, a seasoned Vatican expert in his book Conclave.

The fact that Pope Francis has appointed a large number of members to the College of Cardinals implies that if the next conclave, or papal election, becomes a showdown between conservatives and progressives, the progressives will have a significant numerical advantage, making it likely that a new pope will be chosen who will continue Francis's priorities and reforms.

But it's not as straightforward as that, Vatican observers warn.

Many experts, with years of experience, believe that assuming the College will automatically choose a Francis clone as its leader is an overly simplistic view.

The cardinals chosen by Francis come from a diverse array of countries and hold quite different opinions on matters like the Church's stance on women and its views on gay Catholics.

“He's not stacking the College of Cardinals,” said Mr. Ivereigh. “It's a misconception that these cardinals will automatically think like Francis, that's a simplistic view. They're highly intelligent individuals who form their own opinions.”

Pope Francis remains alive and his health is steadily improving, according to the Vatican.

On Tuesday morning, the Holy See stated that the 80-year-old Pope had "rested well all night".

On Monday evening, in a more detailed statement, the Vatican said the Pope's condition had slightly improved, despite still being in a critical state. The issue with his kidneys was no longer a cause for worry, and he hadn't experienced a repeat of the "asthmatic respiratory attack" he had at the weekend.

Francis received communion on Monday morning, and he worked in the afternoon, according to officials.

Speculation about the conclave's timing and the next Pope's identity continues to be intense despite the current delay.

The behind-the-scenes intrigue and gossip is so intense that high-ranking Catholic officials have felt compelled to warn the nameless schemers, saying the focus should be on praying for Francis's quick recovery and release from the Gemelli Hospital in Rome.

"It's disturbing that priests, bishops, and cardinals are already thinking about and working towards the next conclave while the Pope is still alive," said Jean-Claude Hollerich, a cardinal and the archbishop of Luxembourg.

The Pope has stated on several occasions that he would prefer people not engage in speculation and guesswork while he is still alive," he told La Stampa newspaper on Monday. "I find it deeply disrespectful that there are individuals who are more concerned about the future of the Church than the Bishop of Rome (as the Pope is also known).

A Jesuit theologian who is close to the Pope, also criticized Church insiders for speculating about whether the Pope might decide to resign.

Francis has stated before that if he were to become physically or mentally unable to continue, he could resign from his position, similar to what his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, did in 2013 when he became the first pope in 600 years to step down as the Pope of St. Peter.

"Right now is not the time to talk about resignation," said Father Spadaro. The Pope would only resign if his energy was "completely and permanently depleted," he said.

The Vatican has been open and transparent in keeping journalists in Rome informed about the Pope's health, providing updates through briefings and statements twice a day.

The unusually open approach was personally requested by the Pope, according to Vatican insiders. "He instructed the doctors to be truthful about his condition and to report exactly what is happening," Father Spadaro said.

Mr. Ivereigh, who also wrote a book called Wounded Shepherd: Pope Francis and His Struggle to Convert the Catholic Church, said: “The Pope has mentioned this a few times – every time he's had bronchitis, it's triggered 'conclave fever'. One way to handle the inevitable uncertainty of having an elderly, ailing Pope in the hospital is to provide a steady flow of open and clear information. The medical updates are very straightforward and objective. They give us a more complete picture.”

One of the Pope's most outspoken critics noted that engaging in "power struggles" and speculating about who might replace him while he was still alive was not suitable.

Now is the time to pray, not to think about who will follow him," said Gerhard Ludwig Muller, a German cardinal and conservative theologian, in an interview with Corriere della Sera newspaper. "If there are people who are thinking about the future while Francis is in the hospital, that's not good, not good at all. We must pray for him. We don't know when or how, but everyone will die. The Pope has a special role, but he is a man, just like all other men.

The Vatican's chief diplomat.

He is among a small group of cardinals who are being considered "papabile", a term that means they are potential candidates to become the next Pope.

The 70-year-old Italian is viewed as a moderate figure who could appeal to a wide range of cardinals. “He’s very experienced and that could be a big factor in these uncertain times,” said a Vatican insider who wished to remain anonymous. “He could be seen as a steady and reliable leader.”

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A 67-year-old male cardinal from the Philippines.

Dubbed "the Asian Francis" for his good humor and progressive views on issues such as homosexuality and remarriage for divorced Catholics, if elected he would be the first Asian pope. Unlike in the West, where secularism is becoming increasingly popular, Catholicism is experiencing a surge in many parts of Asia. "He's a leading candidate and he would represent continuity," said a Vatican observer. "However, there's a question mark over whether he would have the courage, the determination, for the governance of the Church."

One possible conservative candidate is Peter Erdö, a 72-year-old Hungarian cardinal and Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest. However, his close relationship with Viktor Orban, Hungary's authoritarian leader, may make him a less desirable choice. "He's pro-Orban," said a Vatican insider, "is that what you want in a world dominated by Trump?"

One of the names mentioned most often from outside of Europe is Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, from Ghana. If selected, he would be the first black African to hold the position of Pope in history.

Another name that has come up recently is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, a 59-year-old Franciscan and the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. He is Italian, but has a broad understanding of the world beyond his country, having spent many years in the Middle East. He speaks Italian, Hebrew, and English, and could be expected to follow in the footsteps of Pope Francis.

With overcast skies and heavy rain in Rome this week, the mood within the Vatican City State is subdued. The world is watching to see if Pope Francis can bounce back, or if this marks the end of an extraordinary papacy – either through resignation or passing away.

Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, a Honduran cardinal and a close friend of Francis's, thinks that the Pope will come out of this situation okay.

“He said on Tuesday, 'The Holy Father is a great leader of the Church.' 'I don’t think it is yet time for him to go up to heaven.'"