Asteroid YR4 impact odds plummet as NASA changes threat level of 'city-killer'

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As of 2024, it's now more likely that the asteroid will collide with the moon than with Earth, based on the latest available data.

On Tuesday, February 18, the impact probability for the space object YR4 reached 3.1%, which was the highest ever recorded for an object of its size by NASA, but the chances of a near-term collision later decreased.

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Level 3 indicates a space object is capable of "regional devastation" and prompts astronomers to take notice. However, since the odds have decreased below 1%, YR4's threat level has dropped to level 1, signifying no unusual level of danger, based on the established scale.

Related: Dangerous asteroids: How many potentially hazardous space rocks are lurking near Earth — and can we prevent them?

The latest decrease in the asteroid's potential impact probability was announced after astronomers made observations of YR4 between February 19 and 20, as reported on NASA's Planetary Defense blog. The blog had previously mentioned that clearer skies allowed for better observation of the asteroid, following a week of limited visibility due to a full moon.

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A spokesperson for NASA wrote in the latest blog update on February 20th.