Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 7 years. Here’s what could happen — and what’s being done about it

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The asteroid has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, on average. Although the odds of an impact are very low, astronomers are keeping a close eye on the space rock in order to gather more information - a process that may soon involve the most powerful space observatory ever launched.

Not much is known about 2024 YR4, but the asteroid is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) in width, a "size range comparable to that of a large building," said Dr. Paul Chodas, manager for the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

Asteroids that are one kilometer across or larger in diameter and could potentially cause catastrophic harm to life on Earth.

But smaller asteroids can cause significant local destruction if they are found to be on a collision course with Earth, which is why astronomers need to learn as much as possible - as quickly as possible - about 2024 YR4.

Acquiring more data, such as refining the asteroid's path, may lower the chances of a direct hit to zero. However, astronomers only have a limited time to study the asteroid before it disappears from view in April. They are now planning to point the powerful James Webb Space Telescope at 2024 YR4 in 2024 in an effort to determine the asteroid's size and orbit more accurately.

Monitoring a potentially hazardous asteroid

The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, or ATLAS, telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first spotted 2024 YR4 on December 27. The telescope is one of the asteroid discovery programs backed by NASA to scan the sky for near-Earth asteroids, said Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at JPL and CNEOS, via email.

The size estimate of the asteroid has remained relatively unchanged since its initial measurement, despite numerous observations with various telescopes, due to the fact that the space rock can only be studied by observing the amount of sunlight it reflects back. The amount of light reflected from the asteroid's surface is used to estimate its size.

published in December.

Since early January, astronomers have been tracking the asteroid using the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish Telescope, and the Very Large Telescope in Chile. The asteroid is currently over 30 million miles from Earth and is moving farther away over time, according to Farnocchia. It should be visible through early April and will eventually disappear as it continues its orbit around the sun.

Hawaii-based observatories are also closely tracking the asteroid. The Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System, or Pan-STARRS, located on the Haleakalā volcano in Maui, is considered the world's leading telescope for discovering near-Earth objects. Capable of spotting asteroids from a distance, Pan-STARRS is currently involved in tracking the movements of 2024 YR4.

Hawaii's telescopes are among the most critical tools for planetary defense," said Doug Simons, director at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy, in a statement. "Thanks to our prime location and advanced technology, we can spot, track, and study asteroids with incredible precision. That gives scientists the time they need to assess potential threats and determine the best courses of action to take.

A second observation campaign is scheduled for May, following the initial observations in March. Scientists will use the data collected during this campaign to make the final measurements of the asteroid's orbit and how its temperature changes as it moves further away from the sun.

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Estimating the risks

Knowing the exact size of the asteroid can help astronomers estimate the potential dangers if 2024 YR4 is found to be on a future collision course with our planet.

If the asteroid ends up being on the larger side of its predicted size range, the impact could cause blast damage as far as 31 miles from the impact site," Chodas said. "But that's only in the unlikely event that it actually hits. The potential for damage comes from the extremely high speed (about 38,028 miles per hour) at which the asteroid would enter the atmosphere.

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The disaster cleared a vast area of land, leveling trees and destroying forests across 830 square miles, which is equivalent to 2,150 square kilometers.

It emitted an intense light, producing heat that caused damage to over 7,000 buildings and injured more than 1,000 people.

But if 2024 YR4 is on the larger end, the effects could be significantly worse, as stated by the European Space Agency.

If the asteroid is found to be approximately 50 meters in diameter and confirmed to be a rocky asteroid, the consequences would be comparable to the Tunguska event in 1908, which occurred when a 2,000 square kilometer area was severely affected and 20 million trees were impacted," according to a document shared by the agency. "This is equivalent to an area of a circle with a diameter of 25 kilometers. If the asteroid is larger, the effects would extend to several tens of kilometers.

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“Small asteroids frequently collide with Earth, burning up in the atmosphere as bright shooting stars; fortunately, those that are small do not cause much destruction on the ground,” stated Larry Denneau, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy and co-principal investigator at the ATLAS telescope. “Larger asteroids, however, can cause significant damage, but they strike the Earth much less often. There are still many large ones out there that we haven't discovered yet, which is why we're constantly monitoring the entire sky to stay ahead of potential hazards.”

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