NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Divisional Round Sunday: Will We See Snow in Philadelphia and Buffalo?
and DFS decisions.
Let's take a closer look at the weather forecast for the two NFL games on Sunday and how it may impact the decisions of fantasy managers for each game.
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US weather forecasts for the games are currently up-to-date as of 7 a.m. ET on January 19, 2025 I'm ready to assist.
- 3 p.m.
- Low 30s degrees Fahrenheit
- >80% chance at kickoff
- 8-13 mph northerly
While the exact forecast for this Sunday's game at Lincoln Financial Field hasn't changed, one thing has remained consistent: snow. For the entire week, snow has been predicted, but the uncertainty has been how much we can expect. The majority of forecasts now seem to agree that multiple inches of snow will fall during the game, with the current estimate set at around two to three inches falling during the actual game time itself.
Right now, 3.4 inches of snow are expected to fall between 1 and 7 p.m. ET. That's not a small amount of snow, and it will probably affect something, but it's not as much as was predicted at various times this week, not even as recently as Saturday morning already.
Considering its potential impact on the game, let's reflect on recent history. Over the past decade, in 17 games where it snowed at kickoff, teams scored an average of 41.53 points, which is slightly above the 40.06 points scored in games with rain at kickoff, but approximately 10% below the 45.9 points scored in games starting under clear conditions.
The main impact of snow is felt in the passing game, with the average fantasy points per quarterback per team plummeting from over 13.5 to around 9.7. As a result, the average number of fantasy points earned by a receiver descends from 56.1 to 43.3, with passing yards per play dropping from 6.3 to 5.57. The kicking game is also affected, with a noticeable decline in kicks over 50 yards, a feat that hasn't been accomplished in the last decade, with zero successful kicks of that distance being achieved.
We notice an uptick in fantasy points per game in the run game, rising from 16.3 to 20.3. Interestingly, the average yards per game for rushing remains relatively steady, increasing from 113.8 to 127.4 per game. However, in games played in snowy conditions, we observe more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns, and running backs see an increase in targets per game.
All of this suggests that, for DFS purposes, it would be logical to consider both passing games. It's difficult to rely on either set of receivers or Matthew Stafford in these conditions. Puka Nacua might be the only receiver you can trust, as the Rams tend to use him often on short passes and almost as an extension of the running game.
On the other hand, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, and Jalen Hurts all get a value increase in these conditions and are likely to be mainstays in DFS lineups from this game.
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- 6:30 p.m.
- 15-20 degrees Fahrenheit
- The chances of winning, starting at 25%, increase throughout the game.
- 5-7 mph variable
It might end up being colder and windier at Highmark Stadium than it was at Lincoln Financial Field. With temperatures below 20 degrees and unpredictable winds, the relatively light snowfall of 0.5 inches will likely be a welcome relief to both players and spectators.
The forecast continues to be quite uncertain, and it's possible that several inches of snow could fall starting at midnight. It's not impossible that even more snow than currently forecast may occur.
All the previous analysis on the snow still applies in that it would be beneficial for the running game if it occurs during the game. However, the top four fantasy options - Josh Allen, James Cook, Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry - shouldn't be greatly affected and might even see a slight increase due to a snow game.
Cold weather in Orchard Park, New York causes concern. Temperatures below 30 degrees Fahrenheit can affect the outcome of a game. Over the last decade, the average score in games played above 30 degrees Fahrenheit is 45.71 points.
In the meantime, an average of 41.13 points has been scored in 53 games played in temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit, and an average of 39.68 points has been scored in 25 games played at temperatures between 10 and 20 degrees Fahrenheit.
We observe a decrease in fantasy performance in those games when temperatures drop to between 10 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit, with averages trending downwards by about 10%. This decline is primarily seen in passing game output, while rushing game performance remains steady across different temperature ranges.
The sustained wind speeds of 10-13 mph and gusts of over 20 mph are not insignificant, but they shouldn't dramatically enhance the overall effect of the cold temperatures. The primary impact will be noticeable in the placekicking, with field goal success rates dropping to below 50% for kicks beyond 50 yards, but within 50 yards, there's minimal noticeable effect.
The variable winds shouldn't be a major concern, given the relatively low speeds. Ultimately, the key player in this passing game was going to be Mark Andrews, and he should still be a valuable asset. From a receiving standpoint, it's tough to be optimistic about either team's outlook.
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