How Italy stopped the migrant boats

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It was one of the biggest challenges she had to tackle when she was inaugurated as Italy’s prime minister just over two years ago.

They had been elected on a promise to halt the boats that brought tens of thousands of migrants and refugees from North Africa to Italy with regularity every year.

When she took office in October 2022, the numbers were at an all-time high.

By the end of that year, 105,000 migrants had landed on Italian beaches, and in 2023, the number was even higher – 157,000 asylum seekers and economic migrants made it across the Mediterranean from North Africa.

Her promise to address what she called "an epochal challenge" seemed empty and unconvincing.

Over time, the effects of the various steps taken by her government began to materialize.

By the end of 2024, approximately 66,000 migrants had arrived, representing a marked decrease compared to the number of migrants that arrived in the previous two years.

Confirmation of Italy's success in reducing boat arrivals came this week from Frontex, the EU's border agency, which reported that the number of asylum seekers who made it across the Mediterranean from Tunisia and Libya last year decreased by 59 percent compared to the previous year.

So how did they do it? How has Italy managed to stop so many migrant boats? It ultimately comes down to cold, hard cash.

In 2015-2016, as a way of compensation, Ankara was given €6 billion (£5 billion) in exchange for blocking refugees and migrants crossing by land and sea from Turkey to Greece.

Italy adopted the Turkish model and extended it to North Africa, committing hundreds of millions of euros to Tunisia and Libya, the primary points of departure.

It came down to the dollar sign," said an EU migration policy expert who wished to remain anonymous. "There was also a lot of diplomatic pressure, as well as hopes for other types of co-operation. But money was the ultimate deal-breaker.

They have found that stopping the boats from reaching beaches is the most effective method," the EU official stated. "Once the boats leave, there are limited options available. However, the agreements with Tunisia and Libya have shown to be quite successful in preventing the need for them to set out in the first place.

Flurry of overseas trips

The agreements were the result of a series of trips made by Ms Meloni overseas.

They took her from Tunis and Tripoli to Benghazi in eastern Libya, which has been controlled by strongman Khalifa Haftar since the country divided following the 2011 ouster of Libyan president Muammar Gaddafi.

Ms. Meloni's coalition provided funding, training, and resources to the Tunisian and Libyan coast guards to enhance their capacity to intercept migrant boats.

It is a highly debated policy – the Libyan coastguard has been accused of being a ruthless group, which fires shots at migrant boats – but the prime minister was building on efforts started by previous Italian governments, dating back to 2017, even including one led by the center-Left.

The President of the European Commission and Mark Rutte, who served as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, finalized an agreement with Tunisia.

In return for a significant amount of more than $1.1 billion in aid and investment, the Tunisians agreed to take a more active role in combating irregular immigration. The EU package included €105 million to improve Tunisia's border control capabilities, €150 million in direct budgetary support, and a commitment of €900 million in macro-economic loans.

She made one of several trips that Ms. Meloni took to Tunis. Since her election, she has taken around a dozen official trips to Africa.

The Italians are adopting a comprehensive approach – the Meloni government has introduced a strategy called the Mattei plan, with the goal of promoting economic development in Africa in order to decrease migration.

During a trip to Tunisia last April, she emphasized the need to counteract "the slave traders of the third millennium, the crime syndicates that prey on the sincere hopes of those seeking a better life."

The authoritarian president of Tunisia described what she called a "new approach" to stopping boats. She said Italy and Tunisia have "shared priorities" - both want African migrants to be sent back to their home countries.

Ms. Meloni has adopted a "transactional approach" that has led to mutually beneficial deals for Libya and Tunisia, says Jonathan Fenton-Harvey, a researcher and journalist working on topics of conflict and geopolitics in the Middle East and North Africa.

"The Libyan authorities in Tripoli have to some degree used the EU's concerns about unauthorized immigration to gain more economic and political advantages. At the same time, Kais Saied is also seeking external support to help improve the country's struggling economy," said Mr. Fenton-Harvey.

“Arguably, Meloni has taken a more significant diplomatic approach with the authorities in both Tripoli and Tunisia, and has been more forthcoming with support, provided that support doesn't come with any additional conditions, especially in terms of stemming migration.”

Meloni lobbied the EU to provide funding.

The Italian prime minister was able to persuade the EU to provide financial assistance to Tunisia and Libya.

“Rome's strategy isn't just about throwing money at Tunisia and Tripoli's governments. It's a multi-pronged approach that combines diplomacy and targeted financial aid. Although Italian Prime Minister Meloni has signed agreements with the Libyan and Tunisian governments in various sectors, the real goal is to improve Italy's relations with these two countries,” Mr. Fenton-Harvey noted.

The executive director of Frontex, Hans Leijtens, said: "The decrease in irregular migration along the central Mediterranean route demonstrates improved cooperation with North African countries, particularly Tunisia."

Our goal is to disrupt the business model of criminal groups involved in human trafficking and build strong partnerships is crucial to achieving that objective. Although the number of irregular border crossings to Europe has decreased, the dangers haven't disappeared. New smuggling routes, new hurdles, or even the use of migrants in political calculations could arise at any moment.

The Meloni government has also taken action to restrict humanitarian NGO vessels that previously saved thousands of migrants from struggling boats.

In a decree introduced in December 2022, shortly after her election, an instruction was given to rescue vessels: whenever they pick up one boatload of migrants, they must proceed directly to a port in Italy. They are prohibited from staying in the area to help other migrants in distress, even if there is room for them on board.

They are assigned harbors, often in northern Italy, which are many sailing days from the central Mediterranean – a measure they claim is another way to limit their activities. The captains of boats that break the rules can be fined $56,000 and have their vessels confiscated.

The Prime Minister has shown interest in Italy's method. However, attempting to adopt the Mediterranean strategy in the Channel poses a number of obstacles.

France is not a developing country that needs urgent economic assistance and investment. Also, it wouldn't implement questionable ethical and legal practices such as those employed by the Tunisian and Libyan coast guards.

The Meloni government considers the sharp decline in arrivals a significant political achievement. With 30 percent of voters backing her, it may not be a commanding lead, but it remains ahead of the next most-popular political force, which is the Democratic Party at 22 percent.

“Generally, after two years with a government, many Italians tend to be deeply disappointed with the prime minister. However, Meloni currently remains a popular figure,” said Luca Barana, a senior researcher from the International Affairs Institute in Rome.

People see her as making progress on the issue of immigration, even though she's continuing a lot of policies that earlier governments have already put in place.

Human rights organizations claim, however, that the agreements with Libya and Tunisia are deals with the devil and a disaster for refugees and migrants.

It's reported that asylum seekers in Libya are being held in overcrowded and unsanitary detention facilities, where traffickers allegedly use physical violence to force their family members back home to send more money for their relatives' boat passage across the Mediterranean.

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"This shift towards anti-migrant policies in Tunisia is quite unprecedented and very dramatic," said Susanna Zanfrini, the Italy director for the International Rescue Committee, a humanitarian NGO.

Some migrants are sent back, but others are taken to the border with Algeria or Libya and left in the desert.

Past experience shows that cracking down on one migration route often shifts the problem to another route, much like the game of whack-a-mole.

The report found that, while there was a 59 percent decrease in numbers on the central Mediterranean route, they increased by 14 percent on the eastern Mediterranean route and by 18 percent on the Atlantic crossing from West Africa to the Canary Islands.

“Migration routes are continually changing,” said Ms. Zanfrini. “Crackdowns won't prevent migrants from leaving; they just push people onto even more hazardous routes. Smugglers and traffickers then establish new routes.”

“These agreements with Libya and Tunisia won't address the underlying causes of migration. They are not a long-term solution to the problem.”

For now, Ms. Meloni is joyful, having solved a problem that has plagued many previous Italian governments.

The drop in migrant arrivals was "the result of the hard work that our government has undertaken in recent years," she said this week, praising the Frontex statistics as welcome news. "We're seeing a turning point."

Given how unpredictable irregular migration is, there's no way to ensure she'll remain successful.

"The accords, funding, and support for the Libyan and Tunisian coast guards have had a significant impact, at least in the short term," said Mr. Barana.

“Let's see if it will remain effective in the long term. Similar measures were implemented in 2017. In the short term, the number of boat departures decreased, but by 2020 the numbers began increasing again.”

“There’s significant uncertainty about how long this current trend will continue.”